The Bar is Closing, Mercedes.
A Jeddah debrief sprinkled with season predictions and team hot-takes
From a third-place promotion (and fourth-place demotion) and back again to a 13-place jump in position, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was the spectacle the season opener failed to be.
Despite coverage focusing on the front of the grid with the leading Sergio “Checo” Perez and Max Verstappen’s leap to second, the rookies — and second drivers — took center stage and supplied a fight.
Logan Sargeant set a positive tone with a flying qualifying lap on Saturday before his time was cut for exceeding track limits and his last two qualifying laps ended prematurely. Although the three F1 newbies finished towards the back on Sunday, they consistently swapped places, overtook each other, and outperformed more experienced drivers like Lando Norris and Valtteri Bottas.
For a number of second drivers and rookies, the gap between their teammate’s car was half a second or smaller, and drivers like Oscar Piastri, Yuki Tsunoda, Zou Guanyu, and George Russell outpaced their counterparts. Lance Stroll’s overtake on Carlos Sainz in lap one, sliding into fourth place, was an impressive show of his ability to keep pace with Fernando Alonso’s car — even with the Spaniard’s twelve-year F1 career advantage.
To many fans, Verstappen’s reputation for finishing first meant he was poised for a podium regardless of his back-of-the-pack starting position. Even with that assumption, Red Bull’s rocket ship of a car, and the ease at which he climbed; his 13-place pursuit on a dangerous track — both geopolitically and in rapidity — was an impressive feat. Verstappen snatching the fastest lap from his teammate only sweetened the deal.
The New York Times’ post-race coverage illustrated his hunt for first place in a line graph of overtakes even a toddler could point to and drool over. The article’s diagram showed Verstappen scaling Mt. Everest while the rest of the leading drivers held onto their positions, going for a paved walk in the suburbs rather than a treacherous climb.
Overall, the slew of new management and teammates brought an air of first-day-on-the-job niceties that reflected the lack of on-track battles between teammates. An “offense is the best defense” tone made for a disappointing brawl with a lack of defending from regular brick walls like Lewis Hamilton.
The two McLarens and Alpines stood out as the newly acquainted teammates had wheel-to-wheel action, swapping positions throughout. Other teammates stuck close by towards the second half of the race, notably without an edge of competitiveness.
As places are exchanged and number one drivers are unclear in teams like Haas, Alfa Romeo, and Alpine, will we see new breakout stars in F1? It’s no secret that drivers like Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, and Verstappen have become celebrities in their own right. However, if a lack of action towards the front continues, paired with over-performing second drivers, viewers may look further down the roster for excitement come race day.
It may be too soon to tell; however, the title battle is looking like more of a sibling spat between the Red Bull teammates than a rivalry between top teams. Alonso and Russel’s surge to the front and, if the team can translate its speed in the straights to the rest of the strategy, Ferrari’s Golden Boy (i.e., Leclerc) seem like the only plausible competition outside of Red Bull.
Ferrari, even with their poor strategy, seemed to tail Red Bull last year with drivers like Verstappen acknowledging Leclerc as a worthy opponent. However, the media and Drive to Survive continued to push the Hamilton vs. Verstappen agenda.
With a streamlined strategy and rectified reliability, Ferrari could bring the fight to Aston Martin. A battle at the front, however, may only occur if both Red Bulls slow remarkably; or if the speedy car lacks dependability. Hope may be slim, though, as power erosion and mechanical hiccups fail to deter the blue cars from prevailing.
Despite Christian Horner and Toto Wolf’s catty middle-school mean-girl gossip captured by Netflix’s Drive to Survive crew, the portrayal of Mercedes as “The Enemy” lacks a solid foundation after the 2022 season.
Hope soured at the start of the 2023 season of any chance the fan-favorite team would bounce back onto the podium’s top step. With Hamilton and Russell’s respective fifth and seventh-place finishes behind both Red Bulls, Carlos Sainz’s Ferrari, and Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin in Bahrain, Mercedes no longer feels like a threat. Even when Russel briefly holds the third-place trophy, it lacks the disrupting presence that Mercedes once promised.
Although F1 likes to operate with an “if you ain’t first you’re last” mentality, Mercedes’ fourth and fifth-place finish in Jeddah should be celebrated: they beat both Ferraris.
So why does Mercedes still lack the menacing morale that should make Verstappen constantly check his mirrors?
Simply put, it’s a new season with a shaken-up grid — McLaren weighed down by high-tech sponsor billboards in the back and both Aston Martin’s slinking closer to claiming a spot at the top. In a glass-half-full outlook, Mercedes is the Best of the Rest — claiming the spot from McLaren. A team that is used to and holds the record for the most consecutive constructor’s titles (eight), will naturally go through the five stages of grief. We saw stages two and four (anger and depression) last year and while the rest of the grid has long accepted Mercedes’ fall from grace, it seems like the team is just now moving on from denial.
Even Hamilton and Russel agree.
Russel predicted the cream-of-the-crop champagne-spraying champions after just the first race. “Red Bull has the championship sewn up,” said Russel.
“I’ve never seen a car so fast,” echoed Hamilton.
The season looks bleak for Mercedes, but every great team is pushed off the podium steps eventually; the team is just hanging on a little too tight. Simply put, the golden years are over: The death of Rock ‘n’ Rock, the last call lapsed, the gilded age of the mob long passed — whatever you want to call it. The lights are up, the bar is closing, and Mercedes is still on the dance floor.